Long-range forecasting : from crystal ball to computer

Comprehensively covers all aspects of long-range forecasting methods relevant to the social, behavioral and management sciences. This book is a synthesis of research in economics, sociology, psychology, transportation, education, and management--with occasional references to work in medicine, meterology, and technology. Describes a variety of forecasting methods, their strengths and weaknesses, and how to use them effectively, shows how to structure a forecasting problem, and gives detailed procedures for evaluating forecasting models in order to select the appropriate method for a particular problem. Draws upon material from approximately 1300 books and articles, and includes original research by author.