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"With his international bestsellers Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, Jared Diamond transformed our understanding of why civilizations rise and fall. Now, in his third book in this monumental trilogy, he reveals how some nations successfully recover from crises while adopting selective changes--a coping mechanism more commonly associated with individuals recovering from personal crises. Diamond compares how six countries have survived recent upheavals--ranging from the forced opening of Japan by U.S. Commodore Perry's fleet, to the Soviet Union's attack on Finland, to a murderous coup or countercoup in Chile and Indonesia, to the transformations of Germany and Austria after World War Two. Because Diamond has lived and spoken the language in five of these six countries, he can present gut-wrenching histories experienced firsthand. These nations coped, to varying degrees, through mechanisms such as acknowledgment of responsibility, painfully honest self-appraisal, and learning from models of other nations. Looking to the future, Diamond examines whether the United States, Japan, and the whole world are successfully coping with the grave crises they currently face. Can we learn from lessons of the past? Adding a psychological dimension to the in-depth history, geography, biology, and anthropology that mark all of Diamond's books, Upheaval reveals factors influencing how both whole nations and individual people can respond to big challenges. The result is a book epic in scope, but also his most personal book yet."--… (more)
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Albert Einstein spent the last half of his life trying to fit the universe into one elegant formula. He did not succeed. Jared Diamond is trying to do the same with national political crises in Upheaval. He has developed a list of 12 factors that show up in times of crisis at
The book exists at three levels: the individual, the nation and the world. The factors relating to their crises can be quite similar. The bulk of the book is on seven countries Diamond has had relationships with, having lived and/or worked in them. They are Indonesia, Japan, Germany, USA, Australia, Chile and Finland. They’re all different, and they all handled their crises differently. Some are still in crisis.
A crisis is a serious challenge that cannot be solved by existing methods of coping, Diamond says. The examples include foreign invasion, internal revolution, evolving past previous bad policy, externalizing problems, and denial of problems.
As for the US, Diamond sees it entering a crisis of identity and survival, riven by self-centered Americans who only care about themselves and today – right up to the top. Perspective, reflection and especially co-operation and compromise are absent from this crisis.
These are Diamond’s 12 factors for national crises:
1. National consensus that one’s nation is in crisis
2. Acceptance of national responsibility to do something
3. Building fence, to delineate the national problems needing to be solved
4. Getting material and financial help from other nations
5. Using other nations as models of how to solve the problems
6. National identity
7. Honest national self-appraisal
8. Historical experience of previous national crises
9. Dealing with national failure
10. Situation-specific national flexibility
11. National core values
12. Freedom from geopolitical constraints
The Chinese word weiji means crisis. It component characters are wei for danger and ji for opportunity. As in many clouds have silver linings. The example he gives first is Finland’s stunningly rapid industrialization when faced with $300M in war reparations after negotiating peace with the invading Soviet Union. Finland only had four million people at the time.
Things get dicier at the global level. Looking forward to potential crises like nuclear winter and climate change, Diamond’s model shows the nations of the world, and in particular the USA, are not set, ready or equipped to make the efforts the model stipulates to come out the other side of the crisis decently.
The structure of the book is standardized: a lot of history, some insight from personal relationships, and how the historical crisis fits the parameters Diamond set out. Mostly, it’s a lot of international history; interesting, and probably new to most readers. By far the best chapter is the epilogue, where he tackles the real issues: do national leaders make a difference in crises, and do nations need a crisis to act, or can they anticipate. The answers are sometimes to all the questions.
Diamond has created an interesting matrix for future study, but its application to the real world remains a question mark. It was a good exercise, but of indeterminate value.
David Wineberg
The author uses personal crises and the way in which individuals manage them and seeks to see whether a similar process may play out with nations. He explores, in depth, nations which
The biggest challenge of the work is the cosmopolitan nature of the author and how he takes for granted most of the premises of cosmopolitanism. Such is not to say that he is wrong or anything of that sort; it just means that the work is unlikely to persuade a lot of people. Those who will agree will already share the general predisposition of the author; those who tend to be more nationalist or have skepticism about cosmopolitanism will not have their worldview sufficiently challenged by the portrayal of the author.
A fascinating deep dive into the modern history of the countries discussed, and an interesting way forward to consider when it comes to nations and crises.
I received an ARC from the publisher in exchange for a fair reading and review.
He has focussed on how some nations deal with crises in this book. The link to the personal crisis is, in my view, tenuous. I like the
The second part of the book, focussing on the way forward, is good, with a strong emphasis on Japan and the USA. I like the part about Germany, which is excellent.
His concluding chapter and epilogue are the showpiece of the book.
This book is nowhere near boring life so much of his book Guns, Germs and Steel was. This was actually quite enjoyable to read.
The basic premise is how monumental situations in a number of countries
The initial 4 countries are
Finland - its war with Russia in at the beginning of WWII.
Japan- the forced opening of the country to the US and Europe in 1853
Chile- the coup and resulting dictatorship of Pinochet.
Indonesia- and its coup in 1965 and the atrocities that followed but to this day are ignored.
Then thee book looks at
Japan and Germany after WWII
Australia- and it working to decide who as a country they are.
The book closes with putting the USA under the microscope lays out what we have done well and where we fail, and details how a Chile like situation could happen here, and what we need to do to change.
The author closes the book by detailing 4 significant issues the world will need to come to grips with,
Written before the Covid pandemic.
Excellent book.