Publication
Cambridge Univ Pr (1988)
Description
Any explanation of political collapse carries lessons not just for the study of ancient societies, but for the members of all complex societies in both the present and future. Dr Tainter describes nearly two dozen cases of collapse and reviews more than 2000 years of explanations. He then develops a new and far-reaching theory that accounts for collapse among diverse kinds of societies, evaluating his model and clarifying the processes of disintegration by detailed studies of the Roman, Mayan and Chacoan collapses.
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User reviews
LibraryThing member Topper
I bought this book as it is mentioned favorably in much of the peak oil/collapse literature that has been popular in the last few years. While CoCS is a scholarly, academic monograph, rather than a popular work in the style of Jared Diamond, it is nonetheless highly readable and highly
The premise behind CoCS is that previous attempts to explain collapse (here defined as a shift from a higher state of social complexity to a lower one) have relied on a post hoc approach to collapse rather than a comprehensive systems-theory approach. For example, traditional approaches have appraised the collapse of Rome as a result of decadence, barbarian invasions, Christianity, and so on. But to Tainter, "decadence" is undefinable (and therefore useless), barbarian invasions were easily shrugged off during the early Empire, and the Eastern Empire embrace Christianity for centuries without collapsing.
Instead, Tainter proposes that the collapse of Rome (and the Maya and the pre-Columbian Chacoan society of New Mexico) was the result of a declining marginal return in social investment. In the case of Rome, the Republic and early Empire had established a large energy surplus (in the form of booty from conquered neighbors) that was able to fund Rome's administration without putting an undue burden on the population. However, as the low-hanging fruit of wealthy neighbors began to diminish, Rome was unable to extract enough energy from its military conquests, provinces or trade to maintain the growing costs of maintaining the Empire.
This curve of decreasing marginal returns is amply illustrated with references to agricultural output, research and development output, and education. Although Tainter does not have data for the Mayan and Chacoan societies, his appraisal of the archaeological evidence does suggest that these two societies also suffered from decreasing marginal returns on investment.
Tainter's thesis makes sense, and his logical development of the idea makes it one of those "of course everyone knows that" elucidations of what seems obvious in retrospect. Where Tainter falls short is the absence of a unifying measure of marginal returns across all aspects of a complex society such as ours. The implication is that it would be energy (in whatever form--cash, petroleum, wheat), but Tainter leaves it to others to develop this aspect of his theory.
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informative.The premise behind CoCS is that previous attempts to explain collapse (here defined as a shift from a higher state of social complexity to a lower one) have relied on a post hoc approach to collapse rather than a comprehensive systems-theory approach. For example, traditional approaches have appraised the collapse of Rome as a result of decadence, barbarian invasions, Christianity, and so on. But to Tainter, "decadence" is undefinable (and therefore useless), barbarian invasions were easily shrugged off during the early Empire, and the Eastern Empire embrace Christianity for centuries without collapsing.
Instead, Tainter proposes that the collapse of Rome (and the Maya and the pre-Columbian Chacoan society of New Mexico) was the result of a declining marginal return in social investment. In the case of Rome, the Republic and early Empire had established a large energy surplus (in the form of booty from conquered neighbors) that was able to fund Rome's administration without putting an undue burden on the population. However, as the low-hanging fruit of wealthy neighbors began to diminish, Rome was unable to extract enough energy from its military conquests, provinces or trade to maintain the growing costs of maintaining the Empire.
This curve of decreasing marginal returns is amply illustrated with references to agricultural output, research and development output, and education. Although Tainter does not have data for the Mayan and Chacoan societies, his appraisal of the archaeological evidence does suggest that these two societies also suffered from decreasing marginal returns on investment.
Tainter's thesis makes sense, and his logical development of the idea makes it one of those "of course everyone knows that" elucidations of what seems obvious in retrospect. Where Tainter falls short is the absence of a unifying measure of marginal returns across all aspects of a complex society such as ours. The implication is that it would be energy (in whatever form--cash, petroleum, wheat), but Tainter leaves it to others to develop this aspect of his theory.
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LibraryThing member ritaer
Tainter examines several major cultures that show a rise in complexity and expansion in territory followed by a collapse and decline. Rome is, of course, a primary example, with Mayan culture, Chaco Canyon, and Chou China other major collapses. The author summarizes the major theories about
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collapse, then proposes that declining marginal returns as a major cause. The cost of maintaining a military establishment, large and complex bureaucracies and systems of internal control come to exceed the benefits. Show Less
LibraryThing member PaulRx04
Very good, but not as good as Guns, Germs, Steel
LibraryThing member AJBraithwaite
A really detailed analysis of the reasons for the collapse of complex societies. For my own purposes, as a general reader, perhaps it is a bit too detailed in places (lots of references to other people's work, for example). It felt a bit like reading someone's PhD submission, to be honest.
Having
Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. Another aspect I appreciated was the way Tainter takes earlier writers to task for assuming that civilisations are automatically A Good Thing and for coming up with completely unjustifiable reasons for their decay.
Tainter urges us to identify another source of energy to avoid the inevitable problems that will be associated with the exhaustion of fossil fuels and inexorable growth of the human population.
Having
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said that, it was very interesting to see the intersection of archaeology with economics that Tainter presents in this work and I particularly enjoyed the last chapter where he looks at the implications of his findings for the complex societies we inhabit today.However much we like to think of ourselves as something special in world history, in fact industrial societies are subject to the same principles that caused earlier societies to collapse.Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. Another aspect I appreciated was the way Tainter takes earlier writers to task for assuming that civilisations are automatically A Good Thing and for coming up with completely unjustifiable reasons for their decay.
Tainter urges us to identify another source of energy to avoid the inevitable problems that will be associated with the exhaustion of fossil fuels and inexorable growth of the human population.
Show Less
LibraryThing member rubyman
Diminishing marginal returns lead to collapse when there is power vacuum because parts of the society are less motivated to support the system rather than detach from it or even sabotage it.
It's a believable idea. But it's hard for me to grasp the reasons for the inevitability of diminishing
Tainter explains that people grasp for the lower hanging fruit first so what's left after that is harder to get fruit - so you move from high marginal return to lower marginal return. But as a general metaphor for all kinds of processes it's hard to swallow.
- Oil companies develop easier to get oil wells first.
- Education provides general knowledge first which has a higher marginal return than specialized knowledge because it can be applied to more situations.
- Scientists discover easier knowledge first.
- Socio-political structure of a society is less complex first.
I can sense that there is truth to these examples. Over time those processes do seem to become more complicated and brittle. But i also feel like there could be counter examples. What about the notion of critical mass or breakthroughs? Like when you move from coal to oil, isn't there a big spike in marginal utility? I don't know. Perhaps Tainter accounts for such local spikes and talks more about the big picture where the trend is for diminishing.
Besides this complication with diminishing returns I learned a lot from this book. A glimpse into how and why societies are born and collapse.
It's a believable idea. But it's hard for me to grasp the reasons for the inevitability of diminishing
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marginal returns. Tainter explains that people grasp for the lower hanging fruit first so what's left after that is harder to get fruit - so you move from high marginal return to lower marginal return. But as a general metaphor for all kinds of processes it's hard to swallow.
- Oil companies develop easier to get oil wells first.
- Education provides general knowledge first which has a higher marginal return than specialized knowledge because it can be applied to more situations.
- Scientists discover easier knowledge first.
- Socio-political structure of a society is less complex first.
I can sense that there is truth to these examples. Over time those processes do seem to become more complicated and brittle. But i also feel like there could be counter examples. What about the notion of critical mass or breakthroughs? Like when you move from coal to oil, isn't there a big spike in marginal utility? I don't know. Perhaps Tainter accounts for such local spikes and talks more about the big picture where the trend is for diminishing.
Besides this complication with diminishing returns I learned a lot from this book. A glimpse into how and why societies are born and collapse.
Show Less
Original publication date
1988
ISBN
052138673X / 9780521386739