The Fifth Risk

by Michael Lewis

Hardcover, 2018

Call number

320.973 LEW

Collection

Publication

W. W. Norton & Company (2018), Edition: 1, 256 pages

Description

The author posits that the post-2016 election chaos that's taken over Washington has resulted in a small number of uninformed Trump appointees triggering devastating world consequences.

User reviews

LibraryThing member browner56
In The Fifth Risk, Michael Lewis offers an intriguing, if flawed, look at how the federal government functions as well as what the men and women who makes things work stay up at night worrying about. Expanded from a magazine article he published earlier, the book essentially focuses on three different topics. First, the author provides a detailed view of what actually happens at the Departments of Energy, Agriculture, and Commerce, which is quite a bit different than what most of us think those agencies do, Second, Lewis profiles some of the truly remarkable people who run these critical programs and poses to each of them a provocative question: What are the biggest risks in what you do? Finally, he critiques how the 45th POTUS handled the transition of power from his predecessor, focusing on just how unprepared, inept, and self-serving that process was.

Lewis’ development of the first two topics is both successful and quite enlightening. For instance, he tells the story of asking the chief risk officer for the Department of Energy, the agency that oversees both our nuclear energy program and the nation’s nuclear weapon arsenal, to rank his most worrisome concerns. The fifth risk listed, after obvious ones such as terrorist attacks or natural disasters, was the threat of bad project management, which becomes a theme for the entire book. The author also details how access to publicly funded data—especially that involving weather forecasting—has become increasingly restricted and co-opted for use by the private sector. On the other hand, Lewis is far less effective in promoting his overt political agenda; while much of this information is infuriating, too much of it is unfocused, underdeveloped, and a little dated. So, although this book is worthwhile for the message it delivers, it nevertheless seemed to be a hastily constructed effort that falls short of the extremely high standard that the author has set for himself with his past work.
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LibraryThing member featherbear
This book is short and of the moment, so check your local library, as I did. Apparently optioned by the Obamas for a potential Netflix series.

It’s about the transition non-actions of the Trump administration, though Trump himself is only present by his absence; it’s not an insider tell-all like the recent books Fire and Fury (Michael Wolf) and Fear: Trump in the Whitehouse (Bob Woodward). Much of the transition for new presidential administrations in the U.S. involves the appointment of leaders for the various federal departments. Based on interviews with department staff, the Trump administration apparently considered this an extremely low priority, partly because of an ideological aversion to “big government,” and partly due to general ignorance about what the departments actually do (perhaps the two are intertwined). The result was that either positions were not filled or filled based on blatant crony capitalism. The ignorance about federal government functions is not unique to the Trump administration; Lewis’s theme is that most Americans have no idea of the extent of big government’s contributions to the welfare of the nation.

Based on my limited reading of Lewis’s oeuvre (Flash Boys & Boomerang: the Meltdown Tour), he gets his themes across through stories, about or told by his interviewees. Lewis sets the stage by recounting Chris Christie’s short-lived experience on the Trump transition team. It’s not hard to see why Putin might have manipulated the election to favor Trump. Trump’s indifference to his responsibilities seems to be a more efficient way to destroy the U.S. government than a thousand sleeper agents.

Lewis interviews government servants who work or worked behind the scenes. There is Max Stirner, instrumental to the implementation of federal laws for transition protocols that Trump and his staff resisted or ignored. There is John MacWilliams, formerly of the DOE (Department of Energy) to introduce the responsibilities of that department that most Americans might be unaware of. The case study of the Hanford nuclear waste site should give you nightmares. Meanwhile, there is a theme introduced by ARPA-E, a research group sponsored by DOE, that does research private capital focused on short term gains is structurally unwilling to finance. As Lewis continues, ARPA-E is an example of a general hostility to scientific evidence that the Trump administration shares with a significant portion of the American citizenry.

We learn through the stories of Kevin Concannon and Kathie Otecki that USDA oversees scientific research, food stamps, and food inspection, which gives Lewis an opening to discuss American attitudes toward food stamp recipients. A recent article in Aeon, The Bad News on Human Nature, in 10 Findings from Psychology has been criticized for cherry-picking to generalize about human nature in general, but a number of points do seem to be relevant to the American situation:

*We view minorities and the vulnerable as less than human
*We believe the downtrodden of the world deserve their fate.
*We are blinkered and dogmatic.
*We are vain and overconfident.
*We are moral hypocrites.
*We are all potential trolls.
*We favor ineffective leaders with psychopathic traits.

Just considering food stamps, agricultural research, and food inspection, it could be argued that USDA saved more American lives than Homeland Security and the U.S. military combined. As a side note, one of the rare Trump appointees, Brian Klippenstein, seems to have been obsessed with eliminating USDA regulations on animal abuse.

Another Trump appointee was Barry Myers (CEO of AccuWeather), a gross example of crony capitalism. Lewis explains how the Department of Commerce is responsible for most things statistical (census, weather). Myers’ efforts before and after the appointment were to undermine the work of the National Weather Service (paid for by the taxpayer). This information was free to the public, but Myers saw it as competition for his commercial weather app, even though the app derives all of its information from the National Weather Service database. Kind of a fox in the henhouse situation.

Appropriately, Lewis ends the book on government research on tornadoes. The fifth risk is chaos, the unpredictable. Unlike hurricanes, where tornadoes will appear seems to be completely random within certain geographical areas of the Midwest. Although Lewis focuses much of his book on risk analysis that can be mathematized by statistics and probability theory, for chaotic puzzles like tornadoes, the best approach seems to be social science-psychological theory – how to convince people to shelter immediately when a tornado is on its way. Unfortunately – consider food stamps – Lewis doesn’t seem to be all that confident that a strategy of psychological persuasion is ever going to be effective with America’s elected leaders or its voters.
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LibraryThing member kcshankd
However bad it is, it is worse than it seems. Just criminal incompetence that we will all pay for a very long time. Elections have consequences. This book will make you furious.
LibraryThing member JosephKing6602
Interesting and different perspective on how Trump’s inexperience with government is a potential problem for USA. Fascinating chapter on data scientists & Dept. of Commerce. Highly recommended!
LibraryThing member novelcommentary
It’s what you fail to imagine that kills you... It is what you never learned that might have saved you. This is the warning and the tag line of Michael Lewis' new book, The Fifth Risk. Lewis does a masterful job of outlining just what some of the departments of the federal government (Energy, Agriculture,and Commerce) do and how dedicated the individuals are who devout their extensive knowledge and passion to the operation of these agencies. This highlights the warning of the book by detailing how the new administration showed no interest in the baton passing of the government transition program. Various interviews of accomplished officials revealed how tenuous some of the risks are to our future: nuclear accidents, electrical grid sabotage , and the threats of North Korea and Iran seem logical but the new risk has to do with the fallout if the work of the government is not continued. Lewis contends that the new administration prefers ignorance. "If you want to preserve your personal immunity to the hard problems, it’s better never to really understand those problems,” he writes. “There is an upside to ignorance, and a downside to knowledge. Knowledge makes life messier.” Recommended reading… (more)
LibraryThing member strandbooks
I might have to buy a crate of The Fifth Risk to put in all my friend’s hands. It’s non-fiction but a page turner. I started it yesterday and finished it today. It is about the balance between government and private companies. Everything from our weather forecasts, to billions of dollars of loans from the govt to rural America small businesses, to cancer immunotherapies the government does a lot in our daily lives. It does R &D the private sector will never do, but had no problem using once developed.
Lewis did a lot of research for this book previously but then the trump administration provided a timely moment when all of a sudden Departments weren’t being filled with appointed leaders. He toured the country asking people in Department of Energy, Agriculture, commerce etc what kept them up at night. Their answers are eye-opening. So many of these departments are only in the news when they have an error, not for everything they do right and programs that make America possible. Many of the people he interviewed have been asked many times to go to the private sector but feel their duty to serve the country. It gives a different outlook than sloths running a bureaucracy that is often the negative stereotype.
As the NYTimes said “I would read an 800-page history of the stapler if Lewis wrote it.”
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LibraryThing member willszal
In “The Fifth Risk,” Michael Lewis grieves the loss of excellence in government.

The United States populace has an interesting relationship with government. Liberals often won’t even fly the American flag, because they see it as synonymous with war and terrorism. And yet conservatives don’t like government either, constantly looking for ways to reduce its ability to serve its people.

The United States is also a nation of immigrants, and it is those families that have recently immigrated that often are the best at feeling gratitude for the competence that our government still commands.

The Trump administration is an insurgency. Steve Bannon’s blueprint—to dismantle the United States empire from within the halls of government—has been flourishing.

And yet, for the 4,000 politically appointed officials the Trump administration has had to work with, there are two million government employees. This massive institutional inertia is the only reason our country doesn’t look like Venezuela right now.

Unlike some of Lewis’ other work, this book lacks a strong narrative arc. The stories are interesting, and tangentially-related. The book has some introduction, but lacks any kind of conclusion. I’m not sure Lewis consciously understood he’s in mourning. The title is equally unimpressive.

That said, the stories were fascinating. The United States government has created departments within departments over the years in an organic and often-surprising fashion. Did you know that the Department of Energy maintains our nuclear arsenal (instead of the military)? Did you know that the Obama administration created a Chief Data Scientist, responsible for open-sourcing all non-confidential data?

For all the talk of risk, climate change and food security were only a footnote, disproportionately underrepresented.

In conclusion, this book is fun, short, and sad.
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LibraryThing member margitc
The Fifth Risk is an illuminating reminder of what our government actually does and what we risk if we let it fail.
LibraryThing member 2wonderY
Incredibly easy to read and wonderfully informative.
LibraryThing member annbury
Dull, relative to other books he has written. I had no idea it was about Trump and his idiot friends.
I did not expect Lewis to be a fan of Trump' what this book is about is that Lewis has discovered thst almost all of federal agencies have morphed into something very different, Trump has been elected president and he has no idea as to what to do, apart from firing the wrong people, I guess the book's title refers to the risk that an ignorant population when electing s president chooses an idiot.… (more)
LibraryThing member nyiper
If nothing else scares you about the current administration, reading this book WILL do the job. I have read several "current" books about what is happening to the government but Michael Lewis does a terrific job of presenting absolutely frightening material in a fascinatingly readable form. It is a book that can be read quickly but what it does to your thinking means that actions need to be taken by all of us, soon, to stop the destruction of so many essential parts of the government that we, as the general public, just have not nearly understood enough about or appreciated.… (more)
LibraryThing member labdaddy4
A very quick read, I could have kept reading - fascinating and frightening.
The third chapter where he focused on the Dept of Commerce and the NWS was the most interesting to me. No matter the politics, I fear that the willful ignorance currently in power within our federal government will cause harm that might take a long time to reverse.… (more)
LibraryThing member bogopea
Eye-opening as to the diligence and dedication of federal agencies and the career employees who make it all happen. Countered by the ignorance of the Trump administration to recognize these assets AND to name political appointees to key positions in these agencies who are openly anti what the agency stands for and whose goal is to diminish them.… (more)
LibraryThing member Susan.Macura
My personal tradition on Christmas Eve is to curl up with a scary thriller. There is something about the holiday and being terrified with a fictional tale involving the likes of serial killers. However, this year I went in another direction and read Michael Lewis' newest contribution to the literary world. I never expected that this tale would scare me more than any other book that I have read in years. I have followed the growing number of investigations surrounding President Trump - the ties to Russia, the campaign, the transition, his foundation, his business and his taxes - but this book reflects how unprepared the Trump team was to take over the government on Inauguration Day! This is a frightening look at this fact as well as the appointment of people who knew little if anything about the positions they found themselves in. I hate to admit how little I knew about the various cabinet positions and what their real responsibilities are but the people Trump chose to lead them should have known more than I did. Unfortunately, it is obvious that they did not, nor did they exhibit any desire to learn as evidenced by their lack of taking part in any transition meetings as former presidential teams did. I learned a great deal from reading this book, maybe too much, as I am truly terrified by the ignorance of Trump and his staff!… (more)
LibraryThing member dickmanikowski
Excellent read with two primary themes: 1) That the Trump Administration was deliberately unprepared to take over the Federal Government operations despite measures that had been laid out to ease the transition; and 2) That the agencies that comprise the Federal Government perform an amazingly broad range of critically important functions.… (more)
LibraryThing member carolfoisset
Fascinating and terrifying at the same time. Enjoyed the insight to the government agencies - can't believe how little I know about them. Left me wanting to know more, also wondering how they are functioning day to day now that Trump has been in office for 2 years. I now follow NOAA - might as well get the info straight from the source!… (more)
LibraryThing member asxz
Not sure what just happened. I was all set for an anecdote-based breakdown of the transition between administrations and for the first 50 pages it seemed like that’s what I was getting. Then it just ran out of steam. There’s some good stuff in there about the “business” of weather, but there’s no coherent theme or thesis being developed here. I’m still not sure what the fifth risk is or who’s running it. Disappointing.… (more)
LibraryThing member prichardson
I got through this book in no time at all with mixed feelings of awe for those working hard at the heart of government to better the lives of the American people against the self interest that comes with political appointments. As a Brit I find the transition process that takes place with a new president as being utterly fascinating and this book gave some great insights into that process.… (more)
LibraryThing member Jotto
Lewis briefly describes a number of the people the Trump Administration has put in charge of a number of Government agencies noting the many cases when little effort was made to provide an effective transition. He also provides a number of biographies of the people who were replaced by President Trump's appointees. One is given an insight into why a number of key governmental departments are no longer able to function effectively.… (more)
LibraryThing member addunn3
The trump adm. has left many dept. of government understaffed or without qualified leadership. Does it matter? Yes. First half is excellent- the second is disjointed and rambling without purpose.
LibraryThing member annbury
Michael Lewis is always a joy to read, but this is a sad book. For many, "the government" is the enemy, a sink of waste and needless activity. Lewis looks instead at some of what the government actually does do, much of which is very valuable indeed, like the weather service. Under the Trump Administration, much of the structure of government is eroding, either through neglect or through deliberate action. This increases the chances of an unanticipated accident. Perhaps things can be rebuilt when Trump is gone. The risk, however, is that the danger is permanent.… (more)
LibraryThing member writemoves
This was a book that had me very angry and upset from the first page to the last page. With all that has been written about the Trump presidency, I have not heard any of the stories or concerns that Lewis discovered in the writing of his book. Based on this book, the transition in power, management and administration from the Obama presidency to the Trump presidency was a farce. Evidently Trump did not expect to win the election and was very, very ill prepared to run the country beginning January 2017. Initially Trump did have a transition team in place managed by former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie. However Christie was let go because Trump's son-in-law had a hissy fit.

Incompetent people were chosen as cabinet members led by Wilbur Ross, Rick Perry and Ben Carson. Sycophants were offered jobs in government agencies whether they were remotely qualified or not.

Why does this matter? Lewis describes what was seen as the five risks :1. Accidents with nuclear weapons; 2. North Korea; 3. Iran and nuclear weapons; 4. Attacks on the electrical grid; 5. project/program management.

Other risks cited in this book involves wildfires, lack of funding for the food stamp program and misuse of science to support poorly thought out policy ( climate control).

Another risk from the human resources side of government agencies is the inability to attract qualified and high-performing men and women. The pay is not nearly as good as it is in the private sector and morale is very low given how the current administration treats its workers.

Lewis provides various stories of just how inept Trump has been with government programming. Very scary! We have had our share of hurricanes and other natural disasters. It's a bit discomforting to think that if there was an attack on our electrical grid, how this administration would react. My sense is it would not perform very well.

Excellent read… Eye-opening!
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LibraryThing member hadden
Interesting but depressing account of the problems the Trump administration had in taking over the government. Many of his appointees to government departments like Energy, were either interested in using their position to increase personal profits, or see the job as a sinecure, or were out to disable the work of government for political reasons.

The book explains how much, and how unknown, the work of government is done, and how lack of transition planning has interrupted and harmed the American people. Trump refused to spend money on planning (he thought it was his own money and that dollars spent on planning was theft), and refused to spend any time preparing for the transition (Trump said they could take off a half hour at the victory party and do it all then). The result was chaos and harm. Much of it was naiveté, ignorance and vicious Republican partisanship. Nineteen months into the Trump administration, and much work has been left undone, done badly, and ruined.

Recommended for public libraries and political book collections.
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LibraryThing member unlikely
Too many anecdotes; not enough information
LibraryThing member maneekuhi
I was about twenty pages from the end of Michael Lewis’s 219 page “The Fifth Risk” when I realized I had no idea of what the fifth risk was. I knew it had been mentioned early on in the book. I remembered writing down a brief description of each of the five risks because the chapter headings and brief descriptions in the text wouldn’t be easy to resurrect later. I believe there’s only three chapters, and their labels didn’t make for a lot of clarity. And there is no index. No index.

The last several pages were all about tornados and NOAA and weather warnings and the numbers of people killed in some of the worst storms. Early on in the book though a theme seemed to deal with the Trump transition and how in many cases the Trump team did not appear at the major agencies to discuss handoff issues until the days leading up to the inauguration, and how in many cases the Trump team was one individual who stayed for only for a few hours, and on at least one occasion only a single hour. But what that had to do with the fifth risk…?

Sprinkled throughout the book though were some rather interesting stories about how some very bright, successful people landed their jobs and managed their careers, including an astronaut and a software developer who established a business helping farmers utilize data that had earlier been stored in a Department of Commerce basement. I think I have that right. Confused? Me too ! Hence the 1 star. At the penultimate page I recalled the fifth risk – people, but I still have no idea what the other four are, nor do I really care.

You might be thinking at this point that this reviewer may be a bit senile. Can’t remember this, can’t remember that. In my defense I must mention that I just finished Andrew Roberts’ 982 page “Churchill”, a five star, and I recall in vivid detail much of the excellent writing in that bookI’ve never read Michael Lewis before. I was aware of him because of “Moneyball” and have had it on my to-read list for a long time. But after “the Fifth Risk” I don’t think I’ll risk anymore Michael Lewis. I just took a glance at some of the blurbs on Amazon for “Risk”. Maybe there’s a halo effect here. I suspect Lewis has written some great stuff in the past, but this isn’t one of them.
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Pages

256

ISBN

9781324002642
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