Status
Available
Call number
Publication
Copernicus (2002), Edition: 2002, 288 pages
Description
In a 1950 conversation at Los Alamos, four world-class scientists generally agreed, given the size of the Universe, that advanced extraterrestrial civilizations must be present. But one of the four, Enrico Fermi, asked, "If these civilizations do exist, where is everybody?" Given the fact that there are perhaps 400 million stars in our Galaxy alone, and perhaps 400 million galaxies in the Universe, it stands to reason that somewhere out there, in the 14 billion-year-old cosmos, there is or once was a civilization at least as advanced as our own. Webb discusses in detail the 50 most cogent and intriguing solutions to Fermi's famous paradox.
User reviews
LibraryThing member fpagan
Pretty comprehensive. Webb actually concludes that there are no extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) in the galaxy -- a result, I think, of taking the Fermi paradox too seriously and the Copernican principle not seriously enough. Richard Gott's doomsday argument comes up in Solution 27. I,
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perversely, kind of like one of the variants of Solution 23: Every smart ETC is keeping its head down, suspecting that the galaxy is a rough neighborhood and that some predator race will annihilate them if they make their existence known. Show Less
LibraryThing member will5352
I was totally unimpressed by this book. If I could have given it a zero, I would have. As it is 1/2 star is the least I can give it. In some calculations I believe the basic math is wrong by factors for 10 or 100 due to misplaced decimal points.
LibraryThing member Big_Bang_Gorilla
This is an outstanding presentation of the author's evaluation of fifty possible explanations for Fermi's paradox, i.e., why we have never contacted an alien civilization when the logic and the math seem to indicate that they ought to be out there. I particularly loved the neo-Aquinas layout of
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placing each explanation is a discrete chapter and working through it. I also agree with his conclusion. Show Less
LibraryThing member lightkensei
What an interesting book! Not only did I learn a great deal about the landscape of theories regarding the Fermi paradox, but I also learned a lot about a variety of related topics, including astrobiology, evolution, probabilities, maths, quantum mechanics, and general/special relativity! While I
Another important perk is that I was able to speed through it in only two days of dedicated reading, which is a big deal for me. The last few books I've read have taken a month or more each, which has got me feeling pretty badly about my reading speed. But now that I've seen how fast I can read, I feel hopeful that maybe it won't always be such a slog. Maybe I should just be reading more nonfiction.
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don't 100% agree with the author's final conclusion that we are likely alone in the Galaxy, if not the Universe as a whole, I was able to clearly follow and understand his reasoning in support of it.Another important perk is that I was able to speed through it in only two days of dedicated reading, which is a big deal for me. The last few books I've read have taken a month or more each, which has got me feeling pretty badly about my reading speed. But now that I've seen how fast I can read, I feel hopeful that maybe it won't always be such a slog. Maybe I should just be reading more nonfiction.
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LibraryThing member dukedom_enough
In the (COVID-19 free!) summer of 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi was discussing the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence over lunch. He asked "where is everybody?" In a universe so old and large, other intelligences than ours should have arisen long ago, and they should be here now, on our
Author Webb starts with brief introductions to Enrico Fermi, to the idea of paradox, and to the Fermi Paradox itself. Fermi is probably the most distinguished of those 20th century physicists whom most people haven't heard of, known for cutting to the heart of an issue.
Seven decades on, there's still no resolution to the paradox. Webb presents fifty possible solutions drawn from the literature people have produced since then, sorted into three categories.
First, "They Are Here" - or were here on Earth in the past. He starts with Leo Szilard's joke answer, "they are here and they call themselves Hungarians," referring to the many brilliant emigres from Hungary in the US at mid-century, including Edward Teller and John von Neumann. Webb disposes of flying-saucer theories, and considers that we might be in some sort of zoo or planetarium. Some of these ideas are more testable than you might guess.
The second general category is "They Exist But Have Not Yet Communicated." They're out there, but we haven't found their signal yet. Here he discusses interstellar probes, radio/optical communication, and possible reasons why they might not try to communicate, or travel, or carry out engineering on a scale visible over light years. The problem here is that any explanation along these lines must apply to all of the millions of intelligent species we like to think share our galaxy. If just one species develops technology and decides to spread out, they should have been here long ago.
Science fiction writers have mostly been aware of the paradox since the 1980s at the latest. Most of the proposed solutions in these first two categories can be matched with one or another SF story. In particular, solution number 28, "They Hit the Singularity" has been popular. Maybe we will make our selves smarter by genetic engineering or by building intelligent computers, and then sublime in some unknown sense, leaving the world behind. Webb points out that this solution has the same flaw as many of the others - if it doesn't apply in every single instance, we're still left with the paradox.
Also popular is solution number 27, that intelligent species inevitably self-destruct. Check today's news and make your own estimate here, but remember that the solution has to apply to presumably millions of species. Will they all be selfishly stupid?
The third category is "They Do Not Exist." Webb discusses all the scientific reasons why Earth, Earthly life, or humans might be unique, at least out to great distances in the universe. Maybe we needed rare features of the Earth-Moon system, or the solar system. We seem to have come along when most of the Earth's era of habitability has passed, and we may be the only one of 50 billion species in Earth's history with the right sort of intelligence - the ability to build radio telescopes.
Here, the book, published in 2002, is sometimes out of date. Webb wonders whether rocky planets like ours might be rare. Progress in finding extrasolar planets means we now know that they are fairly common. Webb also dismisses the cognitive abilities of other animals; would be interesting to see what Peter Watts would think about that.
Webb's last solution is his own. He goes through the various inputs into estimates of the prevalence of intelligence, and decides that we are indeed alone. If we come to an end then intelligence, at least technologically-capable intelligence, ends everywhere.
For me, that's maybe not a bad idea to keep in mind amid political unrest and pandemics. The stakes are higher than we may think.
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planet and in our skies, starting from before we evolved. We see no fundamental physical reason why we humans could not expand into and settle our galaxy in 1-100 million years. That's a long time by human standards, but only 1% or so the age of the universe. If we could do it, why haven't others done it already? They've had plenty of time. At least, their radio communications should be everywhere we look. Author Webb starts with brief introductions to Enrico Fermi, to the idea of paradox, and to the Fermi Paradox itself. Fermi is probably the most distinguished of those 20th century physicists whom most people haven't heard of, known for cutting to the heart of an issue.
Seven decades on, there's still no resolution to the paradox. Webb presents fifty possible solutions drawn from the literature people have produced since then, sorted into three categories.
First, "They Are Here" - or were here on Earth in the past. He starts with Leo Szilard's joke answer, "they are here and they call themselves Hungarians," referring to the many brilliant emigres from Hungary in the US at mid-century, including Edward Teller and John von Neumann. Webb disposes of flying-saucer theories, and considers that we might be in some sort of zoo or planetarium. Some of these ideas are more testable than you might guess.
The second general category is "They Exist But Have Not Yet Communicated." They're out there, but we haven't found their signal yet. Here he discusses interstellar probes, radio/optical communication, and possible reasons why they might not try to communicate, or travel, or carry out engineering on a scale visible over light years. The problem here is that any explanation along these lines must apply to all of the millions of intelligent species we like to think share our galaxy. If just one species develops technology and decides to spread out, they should have been here long ago.
Science fiction writers have mostly been aware of the paradox since the 1980s at the latest. Most of the proposed solutions in these first two categories can be matched with one or another SF story. In particular, solution number 28, "They Hit the Singularity" has been popular. Maybe we will make our selves smarter by genetic engineering or by building intelligent computers, and then sublime in some unknown sense, leaving the world behind. Webb points out that this solution has the same flaw as many of the others - if it doesn't apply in every single instance, we're still left with the paradox.
Also popular is solution number 27, that intelligent species inevitably self-destruct. Check today's news and make your own estimate here, but remember that the solution has to apply to presumably millions of species. Will they all be selfishly stupid?
The third category is "They Do Not Exist." Webb discusses all the scientific reasons why Earth, Earthly life, or humans might be unique, at least out to great distances in the universe. Maybe we needed rare features of the Earth-Moon system, or the solar system. We seem to have come along when most of the Earth's era of habitability has passed, and we may be the only one of 50 billion species in Earth's history with the right sort of intelligence - the ability to build radio telescopes.
Here, the book, published in 2002, is sometimes out of date. Webb wonders whether rocky planets like ours might be rare. Progress in finding extrasolar planets means we now know that they are fairly common. Webb also dismisses the cognitive abilities of other animals; would be interesting to see what Peter Watts would think about that.
Webb's last solution is his own. He goes through the various inputs into estimates of the prevalence of intelligence, and decides that we are indeed alone. If we come to an end then intelligence, at least technologically-capable intelligence, ends everywhere.
For me, that's maybe not a bad idea to keep in mind amid political unrest and pandemics. The stakes are higher than we may think.
Show Less
Awards
Royal Society Trivedi Science Book Prize (Shortlist — 2003)
Language
Original language
English
Original publication date
2002
Physical description
288 p.; 9.21 inches
ISBN
0387955011 / 9780387955018