Iraq's disputed territories : a view of the political horizon and implications for U.S. policy

The alternation of military conflict and negotiation over what areas of Iraq are Kurdish and what autonomy Kurds should exercise in them has been an episodic feature of modern Iraq's history. A return to this pattern of struggle after the scheduled departure of U.S. forces in December 2011 could now be the greatest potential threat to Iraq's stability. This report attempts to disaggregate Iraq's often poorly defined disputed territories by drawing upon the political preferences expressed in these areas during Iraq's postconstitution elections and archival records detailing the administrative history of disputed areas in Kirkuk, Ninewa, Diyala, and Saleh ad-Din. Clearly, Iraqis must decide the shape of any territorial compromise and the nature of the overall relationship between the federal government and the Kurdistan region. It is hoped, however, that the evidence gathered in this report can provide an informal view of what possible negotiated solutions to the disputed territories might look like and thereby begin to illustrate the potential parameters and compromises involved in resolving this long-running dispute peacefully.