Status
Available
Call number
Genres
Publication
Verso (2016), 160 pages
Language
Original language
English
Description
Peter Frase argues that increasing automation and a growing scarcity of resources, thanks to climate change, will bring it all tumbling down. In Four Futures, Frase imagines how this post-capitalist world might look, deploying the tools of both social science and speculative fiction to explore what communism, rentism, socialism, and exterminism might actually entail. Could the current rise of real-life robocops usher in a world that resembles Ender's Game? And sure, communism will bring an end to material scarcities and inequalities of wealth-but there's no guarantee that social hierarchies, governed by an economy of "likes," wouldn't rise to take their place. A whirlwind tour through science fiction, social theory, and the new technologies already shaping our lives, Four Futures is a balance sheet of the socialisms we may reach if a resurgent Left is successful, and the barbarisms we may be consigned to if those movements fail.… (more)
User reviews
LibraryThing member DavidWineberg
One thing about the future – it is universally grim. I have yet to see a book where it is bright, inviting or even comfortable. But Peter Frase’s is the fairest assessment I have yet encountered. He has created a matrix of possible outcomes, and examines the four of them as chapters in Four
The four scenarios include aspects of socialism, communism and extermism, in which the rich annihilate the poor in a society where the poor are no longer necessary for anything. Machines do all the labor, from picking fruit to guarding fortress homes. If the planet has been destroyed environmentally, the rich will escape to orbiting luxury space stations. But the most frightening one to me was also the most possible – the rentier future. In this scenario, there are no more factories, no more developments or mines. Instead, the rich own all the intellectual property, and rent it out. No one actually owns anything; they must pay continuously to license and operate it. We already see this in software, music, TV, games, phones, in agricultural seeds, and of course in living quarters. Everything in Western life is being converted to subscription, with payment removed directly from bank accounts. John Deere claims you never own your tractor – you merely license it while you use it, despite having paid to own it. So tampering with the motor or the electronics makes you a criminal. That is a horrifying future to me. It is well underway and is every startup’s dream business model.
The only thing certain is that we can’t go back to an industrial revolution civilization. Factories are going away. The gig economy keeps the 99% on the prowl to scratch together a living. 3-D printing is on its way in (though you won’t own the printer or the product codes, and there will severe restrictions on what you can produce with one), providing a kind of Star-Trek “Replicator” future. So depending on how we occupy our plentiful time, how much abundance there is versus scarcity, and how powerful the rich become, one of Frase’s scenarios is likely.
Naturally, these are not prescriptive choices; there is no pure vision or outcome. They can and will have elements of each other, and Frase points out several crossovers along the way. Mostly, Four Futures is an intellectual challenge. It is a very fast read, couched in the pop culture visions of sci-fi writers and dystopian-future films, things that are very easy to relate to. It is a pleasure to be so challenged, even if the result is less than heartwarming.
David Wineberg
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Futures. They are all plausible, all arguable, and all to be avoided.The four scenarios include aspects of socialism, communism and extermism, in which the rich annihilate the poor in a society where the poor are no longer necessary for anything. Machines do all the labor, from picking fruit to guarding fortress homes. If the planet has been destroyed environmentally, the rich will escape to orbiting luxury space stations. But the most frightening one to me was also the most possible – the rentier future. In this scenario, there are no more factories, no more developments or mines. Instead, the rich own all the intellectual property, and rent it out. No one actually owns anything; they must pay continuously to license and operate it. We already see this in software, music, TV, games, phones, in agricultural seeds, and of course in living quarters. Everything in Western life is being converted to subscription, with payment removed directly from bank accounts. John Deere claims you never own your tractor – you merely license it while you use it, despite having paid to own it. So tampering with the motor or the electronics makes you a criminal. That is a horrifying future to me. It is well underway and is every startup’s dream business model.
The only thing certain is that we can’t go back to an industrial revolution civilization. Factories are going away. The gig economy keeps the 99% on the prowl to scratch together a living. 3-D printing is on its way in (though you won’t own the printer or the product codes, and there will severe restrictions on what you can produce with one), providing a kind of Star-Trek “Replicator” future. So depending on how we occupy our plentiful time, how much abundance there is versus scarcity, and how powerful the rich become, one of Frase’s scenarios is likely.
Naturally, these are not prescriptive choices; there is no pure vision or outcome. They can and will have elements of each other, and Frase points out several crossovers along the way. Mostly, Four Futures is an intellectual challenge. It is a very fast read, couched in the pop culture visions of sci-fi writers and dystopian-future films, things that are very easy to relate to. It is a pleasure to be so challenged, even if the result is less than heartwarming.
David Wineberg
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LibraryThing member the.ken.petersen
The truth about the future is that none of us really know what it holds.
The above, indisputable fact, makes most of this type of book almost not worth reading. Peter Frase has tried to overcome this problem by projecting four different perspectives: communism, rentism, socialism and exterminism.
It is easy, as I appeared to do, in the first sentence of this review, to dismiss prediction but, the alternative is to go blindly where ever life may lead. We need some form of planning and, to mash up and misuse a well known phrase, a one eyed man is a better guide than a blind one.
This book is only 150 pages long and has been written in a style accessible to the common reader (and I should know: there's few commoner). As with any book of this type, one doesn't read it for all the answers, but to obtain a better grasp of all the questions and, Mr Frase does a very good job of that. Well worth a read.
The above, indisputable fact, makes most of this type of book almost not worth reading. Peter Frase has tried to overcome this problem by projecting four different perspectives: communism, rentism, socialism and exterminism.
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He also accepts that the 'real' future is unlikely to be a pure version of any of these alternatives but, a mixture of several.It is easy, as I appeared to do, in the first sentence of this review, to dismiss prediction but, the alternative is to go blindly where ever life may lead. We need some form of planning and, to mash up and misuse a well known phrase, a one eyed man is a better guide than a blind one.
This book is only 150 pages long and has been written in a style accessible to the common reader (and I should know: there's few commoner). As with any book of this type, one doesn't read it for all the answers, but to obtain a better grasp of all the questions and, Mr Frase does a very good job of that. Well worth a read.
Show Less
LibraryThing member kcshankd
This was very good, and whoo boy do recent events seem to verify the 'Mad Max' version. Fight to the last because we fear the worst.
LibraryThing member kencf0618
A sprightly and astute read.
Collection
DDC/MDS
| 330 |
Original publication date
2016-10-04
Physical description
160 p.; 5.2 inches
ISBN
1781688133 / 9781781688137