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Politics. Technology. Engineering. Nonfiction. HTML:NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER �?� Ted Koppel reveals that a major cyberattack on America�??s power grid is not only possible but likely, that it would be devastating, and that the United States is shockingly unprepared. �??Fascinating, frightening, and beyond timely.�?��??Anderson Cooper Imagine a blackout lasting not days, but weeks or months. Tens of millions of people over several states are affected. For those without access to a generator, there is no running water, no sewage, no refrigeration or light. Food and medical supplies are dwindling. Devices we rely on have gone dark. Banks no longer function, looting is widespread, and law and order are being tested as never before. It isn�??t just a scenario. A well-designed attack on just one of the nation�??s three electric power grids could cripple much of our infrastructure�??and in the age of cyberwarfare, a laptop has become the only necessary weapon. Several nations hostile to the United States could launch such an assault at any time. In fact, as a former chief scientist of the NSA reveals, China and Russia have already penetrated the grid. And a cybersecurity advisor to President Obama believes that independent actors�??from �??hacktivists�?� to terrorists�??have the capability as well. �??It�??s not a question of if,�?� says Centcom Commander General Lloyd Austin, �??it�??s a question of when.�?� And yet, as Koppel makes clear, the federal government, while well prepared for natural disasters, has no plan for the aftermath of an attack on the power grid. The current Secretary of Homeland Security suggests keeping a battery-powered radio. In the absence of a government plan, some individuals and communities have taken matters into their own hands. Among the nation�??s estimated three million �??preppers,�?� we meet one whose doomsday retreat includes a newly excavated three-acre lake, stocked with fish, and a Wyoming homesteader so self-sufficient that he crafted the thousands of adobe bricks in his house by hand. We also see the unrivaled disaster preparedness of the Mormon church, with its enormous storehouses, high-tech dairies, orchards, and proprietary trucking company�??the fruits of a long tradition of anticipating the worst. But how, Koppel asks, will ordinary civilians survive? With urgency and authority, one of our most renowned journalists examines a threat unique to our time and evaluates poten… (more)
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Extended review:
Lights Out is a very scary book. For that reason I had to take a break from reading it over the holidays, even though it made me late with my review. My apologies all around.
This also an important book, important
If the writing couldn't be called brilliant, that's a secondary consideration. The main thing is the message. The imaginary horrors of postapocalyptic fiction seem none too extreme when viewed in the light of what could really happen to our communities, our cities, and our world within days and even minutes of a massive cyberattack.
The destruction that once would have taken vast armies, and much later would at least have entailed advanced technology and military power, can now be exceeded in orders of magnitude by the covert actions of a small group of committed fanatics. One solitary, malevolent nut can take out the populated world.
Let me say this right here: yes, I believe this book. I believe it is an accurate report. Veteran newsman Ted Koppel throws all his credibility behind it, a solid reputation gained from his 42-year career in television journalism and his experience in reporting on major events around the world. He includes comments drawn verbatim from experts, both in interviews and in published and unpublished materials, and documents his sources.
Significantly, there is major disagreement among those putative experts, of whom some sound more seriously clueless than others. And some are in frank denial. Koppel reports their contradictory and even self-contradictory assertions, admissions, and arguments in as objective-sounding a way as one would expect a conscientious reporter to do.
And yet, paradoxically, Koppel treats his subject as something too important to be dispassionate about. After laying out all the facts as he has gathered and ordered them, Koppel makes it personal. He gives us autobiographical information, describing his recollections of early childhood in London during the Blitz of World War II, of diving for cover at the sound of an incendiary bomb. He explains how having a plan, being prepared for some kind of emergency, enabled the British to cope with the air raids even if they were not exactly what people had prepared for. He speaks feelingly of personal motives, too, for writing the book--for using the cachet of his journalistic career to seek out the answers to serious questions about our vulnerability to cyberattack--and what the support of his wife and others has meant to him. In these portions of the book he is not striving for objectivity at all; just the opposite.
It gets personal with him because it is and should be personal to every human being on the planet--the more so, the closer one is to all the things we think of as defining the modern world. And the more dependent one is upon them. That includes not only all high-tech devices but everything that depends either directly or indirectly on things that plug in. If the electrical grid goes down, those go down, and they include security, delivery, distribution, and monitoring systems of every kind, not to mention all the things we hardly think of as devices any more, from traffic lights to toasters.
The power grid is extremely vulnerable. The smaller, less cash-rich power companies are less well defended and more vulnerable than the big ones, and even the big ones have inadequate or nonexistent backup systems. The huge power generators on which the major systems depend would take years to replace. The smaller links in the chain are the most easily breached, and one good break could bring down the works or a large part of it. People would be in serious trouble in a couple of days, especially people in urban areas. Communications would be among the first things to go. And the government does not have any reasonable, realistic plan for dealing with such a situation.
A few extra gallons of water, a stockpile of batteries, and a hand-cranked radio are not going to cut it. Not even if you add a gun.
Koppel does not just sound alarms. He also talks about what it would take to improve our chances of survival: how some have already faced the question, from individual "preppers" who go to survivalist shows and spend big bucks on supplies and gear to the tightly organized, community-based self-protection programs of the Mormon church. Most significantly, he spotlights the government's failure to draft any sort of a reasonable plan or even to recognize the need for one. Unless we belong to a self-selecting community that has taken it upon itself to identify and fill the need, we're pretty much on our own. And few of us are equipped to deal with that in even the most basic ways.
The answers are not in this book. The answers may not exist anywhere. But one thing is sure: until the questions themselves are taken seriously, there will be none, either now or when it's already too late.
The book is divided in three parts. The first part looks at the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure. It's old. It's connected. Hackers can get at it and cause problems. He does not dive deep into the nuts and bolts. I'm not sure if that's because it's too complicated, he doesn't completely understand the vulnerabilities, or he does not want the book to be a manifesto on how to structure an attack. Personally, I think it's a bit of all three.
The second part covers how prepared the government is to handle a prolonged loss of part of the electrical grid. No surprise; It's not prepared.
He wraps up the book with a look at what individual citizens are doing. He spends a long time looking at the Mormon church. Part of the church's dogma is to have its members be prepared for a long period of self-reliance. Church members are taught to stockpile food in their homes. The central church organization has a large infrastructure to stockpile and distribute food.
He spends some time with survivalists, but dismisses some of their tin-foil hat conspiracies. The truth is that cities can only survive for a few days without electricity. The lack of food stockpiles, water supply and waste disposal will quickly cause problems.
Given the compliance focus on cybersecurity, I thought this might be an interesting book to read when the publisher offered me a copy for review.
In the first section on vulnerability, you guess what he says he found. It's just a matter of "when" there is an attack on the electrical infrastructure, not "if." In part he blames federalism, regulation, and de-regulation on the situation. There is no one regulatory body in place to impose cybersecurity standards. Ownership of the infrastructure is split into thousands of companies, with different business models and different abilities to spend the time and money needed thwart a cyber attack.
I found the second section of the book to be the better of the three. It's also the part where Mr. Koppel is able to use his star power and connection to meet with current and former government officials who would be responsible for dealing with an attack like this.
Having been closely associated with the cybersecurity and the utilities industry, the threat laid out by Mr Koppel seems not so far fetched. I recently lived through the aftermath of a storm as well and yes, it was nothing short of a zombie
Where this book falls a little short is on the "what to do when this happens" area. I would have loved to see something concrete both from an individual, community and government perspective.
Disclaimer: I received an ARC from blogging for books in exchange for a fair and honest review.
I am so glad that Ted Koppel has written this book, as he pulls no punches in laying out the colossal problem that a cyber-attack would be. He talks to many experts and officials, pushing and probing for answers. It is a bit disconcerting that he mostly receives vague and inadequate answers. Few officials even focus on this problem. We are spending millions of dollars on TSA lines at the airport, but very little on this far more dangerous situation – the safety and security of our electrical system. Koppel does talk to some people who are addressing the problem. There are small communities of survivalists and “preppers” but they are fairly isolated; they couldn’t handle the millions of people who would be affected. Oddly enough, the Mormons are the major community of any size that is concretely preparing for a potential disaster situation.
The book will leave you with a very worrisome outlook. Koppel does not really provide a solution at the conclusion of the book. He does say that at least we have to identify the problem. True, but we really have to start doing something about it. There could be one thing good about the recent hacker attacks that have been revealed during this election season – if we become aware of the prevalence of such attacks and do something about them. And one of the main places to start would be the electrical system. As much as I worry about earthquakes (living in Los Angeles), and I do, a major failure of the electrical grid system would be even more disastrous. I hope everyone reads this book – especially our country’s leaders, and that they do something about it.
The electric power grid is an intricate and complicated piece of human construct; it ranks as the most ingenious human invention ever, ahead of the automobile, ahead of even the internet. The scale of the enterprise as it grew over the years is staggering. Since its growth came about gradually, and in an unplanned manner, the shape and form of the grid does not resemble anything that was well planned, it is a hodge podge of usable bits strung together to work together. There is some logic and reasoning to is, engineers being engineers, the national grid was redrawn, rebuilt, and redesigned to accommodate the latest state of the art technology. Unfortunately, the time lag for something that size is measured in decades.
Mr. Koppel’s selection of the national power grid is a prescient one. It is probably one of the most trusted and taken for granted piece of technology that we have in our life. No one gives a second thought to the reliability and resiliency of the entire grid. This is as intended by the electric utilities and the planners of the grid. It is, however, a misguided illusion, as Mr. Koppel pointed out in very prescient fashion in this book. He goes into detail in the first part of his book. He lays out in some detail, but not enough detail, about the vulnerabilities of the grid. He also failed to research deeper into the technological advances that have been advanced since the 2003 blackout: the work that the DOE and NIST had proposed. The idea is called the Smart Grid, and it encompasses a massive amount of forward looking thinking and technological to come to such a conclusion. The fact that this concept was completely ignored in the book seems to be a massive oversight at best and a failure of clear vision and rational judgement at worst. Because even though the idea of the Smart Grid may not be the solution that Mr. Koppel is seeking, it, and the myriad of ideas the Smart Grid encompasses, may reasonably alleviate some of the unknown threats that Mr. Koppel is addressing.
Mr. Koppel does do a very good job laying out the threat that he wants to talk about: the threat of cyber-attacks that may come stealthily, which can be launched by anyone rather than from a monolithic superpower, and may result in a crippled continent for months if not years. He does this brilliantly in Parts I and II of this book.
Unfortunately, this brings us to Part Iii of Lights Out. Mr. Koppel chose to deviate from the path and he began to delve into some examples of survivalists, preppers, and four chapters on the Mormons and their massive and sophisticated food, fuel, and consumer product distribution network. While all of these stories are interesting, I learned quite a bit from his forays into the prepper world, it certainly does not address the imminent danger that he so eloquently addressed in the previous two parts of the book.
The point being made by Mr. Koppel, is that the non-existent planning on the part of the federal, state, and local government, or the laughingly elementary plans are logistically impossible and unrealistic.
In the end, Mr. Koppel returns to the point that there is a dire need for the government and the private sector to overcome the comfortable and unrealistic view that something like an cyber-attack on the national grid is not imminent and would be far down in the list of imminent disasters that could befall us. In other words, he is preaching that Black Swans, as describe by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is quite real.
In his summary, Mr. Koppel also indirectly appropriated Mr. Taleb’s idea of the state of anti-fragile, i.e. be in a state of preparedness in order to not only be resilient in the face of unknown events, but be able to benefit and profit from the event.
The tendency of modern bureaucracy to lean towards Just-In-Time planning and thinking is one of the themes that Mr. Koppel drew which resonated with me. His comparison of this probable situation with the Katrina disaster eloquently pointed out the tendency for us to only do what is necessary after the disaster has happened. Why be prepared for the unknown unless you knew what the unknown is, why stockpile supplies until you know the disaster is imminent. Mr. Koppel’s point is that you will never know what is coming until it gets here, and then it is too late.
In the end, Mr. Koppel is a talented and detailed story teller. He is also an inveterate name dropper. Of course, being Ted Koppel, you have quite an impressive list of name you can call upon to name drop. He does so with such frequency that what was once just impressive became a bit forced and awkward.
I feel like this was a missed opportunity. Mr. Koppel could have made a stronger, more informed case for the need to invest in infrastructure which is anti-fragile to the new threat on the national grid. He could have made it a goal to examine the ideas being driven within the electric utility industry to buttress the existing national grid and to create the Smart Grid, which is designed with the cyber-security function in mind. He could have foregone some of the interesting digressions in this book to lay out the fundamental problems that creates the threat that he wished to examine. Instead he wrote a fine book, an interesting book, but a very flawed book, from the standpoint of achieving the purpose that he sought to achieve.
He interviewed executives at power companies and within the government. Since most electric power companies are privately owned, the federal government cannot impose security and maintenance standards upon the industry. It was surprising to learn that local distributors of electricity are not governed by any national regulatory standards. The industry regulates itself – votes on which regulations will be mandatory. Of course, industry does not want to spend money that they cannot be positive they would actually need to spend. If there is no attack, they consider the expenditure wasted. (Hmmm, kind of like our auto and house insurance…)
It seems that we are currently vulnerable to everything. And while both industry and government recognize the threat, no one moves on it. They all claim that it is hard to focus on possible threats when there are so many existing problems to deal with – a crisis that may never happen.
I found the book easy to read and absorb. Having work for the federal government I could clearly imagine the lack of action on such a critical issue. Overall, it is somewhat depressing knowing that we are not a country that could go without power for a long period of time without significant loss of life. But the book was interesting and I learned quite a bit.
Thank you to LibraryThing for the review copy in exchange for an honest review.
It is the third part of that subtitle that I find particularly terrifying. I have survived the aftermath of a major hurricane or two. The last one knocked out my electricity for exactly 14 days, but during that extended downtime most of the rest of the city had regained power, so the social structure around me did not break down. While living without power even for two weeks is no picnic, food, water, and cool air were available only a short drive away.
Now imagine that your state and all of those surrounding yours are without power and that no one can tell you how long it will be before power is restored. Communication has, in fact, broken down to the extent that no one can even tell you why the grid is down. How long do you think it will be before for food and water shortages develop in the region’s major cities? How long before the smell of raw sewage forces everyone from their homes? How long before armed thugs decide it is the perfect time to simply take what they want and to hell with everyone else? According to Koppel, you have maybe a week if you are lucky. Simply put, it very soon becomes an “every man for himself and his family” situation.
Lights Out is divided into the three sections indicated by the book’s subtitle. “Cyberattack” sets the stage by describing exactly how malicious hackers have already penetrated the computer systems that control the distribution of electricity throughout the United States. Koppel, and the experts he interviewed, believe that software “Trojan horses” have already been left behind by the governments of Russia and China, and he fears that Islamist terrorists representing groups such as ISIS are close to having the capability of doing the same thing. Bad as this is, the unleashing of the contents of those Trojan horses already in place is not extremely likely because the Russian and Chinese governments understand that the U.S. has placed similar malware inside key computer systems of their own governments. This is the nuclear determent theory of the Cold War replayed.
No, what scares Koppel and his experts is the possibility that terrorist-related hackers might do the same thing – and they have nothing to lose by triggering the collapse of the electricity grid of the U.S. The main goal of groups like ISIS is to bring the world to its end, so those groups would welcome both the complete collapse of the U.S. social structure and any attempt at retaliation on our government’s part. But how do you even begin to retaliate against a group with no government and nothing to lose? And identifying the source of such attacks is not easy, making it likely that the U.S. would retaliate against the wrong country or group anyway. The terrorists are holding all the best cards in any such confrontation.
The second section of Lights Out makes very clear just how unprepared this country is if and when such an attack occurs. Not only are there no emergency plans in place to handle such a catastrophe, experts do not even agree that it can happen. That means that nothing…nothing…is being done to prepare the country for what could be a war to forever end the United States as we know it today.
I found the book’s third section, “Surviving the Aftermath,” to be a little disappointing. I came away from this section without picking up any ideas that I, as an individual concerned about surviving the certain chaos that will quickly develop following the kind of massive and extended power outage that Koppel predicts, could actually use. Rather than offer the kind of advice I hoped for, the author more often points out the futility and ultimate foolishness of most of what individual “survivalists” and more structured groups (such as the Mormon Church) are already doing.
So where are we? Most people are not even aware of the potential threat, much less trying to do anything to keep themselves and their families safe if the threat materializes. Most politicians don’t even want to talk about this. Industry experts cannot agree on the likelihood of such an attack on the U.S. or what to do if it does happen. Almost no one with any authority is talking about making the changes that would safeguard the collapse of this country’s electrical grid. And the time bomb already inside that grid continues to tick.
Yes, Lights Out will make readers very, very nervous, but we have to hope that the right people read this book and take it seriously. Read it yourself. Talk about it and pass it on to others who will read it and talk about it. Do your best to help Lights Out get the attention it deserves.
Ted Koppel thoroughly researched the likelihood of an attack on our power grid and how it could be carried out, and his findings are troubling. There are multiple ways to take down a huge section of the North American grid, which is interconnected. Our government sees it as an unlikely scenario, and if it did happen it would be localized.
Some of this reminds me of Y2K where none of the doomsday predictions happened. But were they prevented because of the huge drive to correct deficiencies in the computer code? I think so. And while there is some scary stuff here, I feel it’s better for the public to know about our vulnerabilities than to stick our heads in the sand. The bad guys already know – we aren’t giving away any secrets.
A worthwhile read and an excellent choice to listen to.
Audio production:
While I do have a copy of the book, I spent more than half my time listening to the audio book. Ted Koppel did the narration and he didn’t disappoint. With perfect pacing and emphasis, he conveyed a needed sense of urgency.
Veteran newsman Koppel, with a consummate skill born of 42 years spent with ABC, lays the groundwork for a story that is every bit as terrifying as anything Stephen King could imagine. What makes ‘Lights Out’ all the scarier is that it is not imagination. A week doesn’t go by where we don’t hear about hackers successfully compromising the computer systems of a company or government agency. The second page of the book describes the recent hacking of millions of federal employees' private information. On the very day I started it my wife, a national laboratory employee, received two rejection letters for credit cards she never applied for. As unpleasant as this kind of cyberattack is for us, it is just the tip of the iceberg of what Ted Koppel's book is about.
The first half of the book describes in frightening detail the weaknesses that exist in America’s three major power grids. It tells how likely it is that a concerted attack may black out large parts of the country for months or even years, and how ill-prepared the electrical power industry and the government is to prevent it or deal with the aftermath. If it does happen (and many experts say the word to use is ‘when’) the prediction is that fewer than ten percent of the population would survive a power outage of one year's duration. Solutions have been proposed and legislation has been introduced to address this but, and this should surprise no one, that legislation has never made it out of committee.
The second half of the book is called ‘Surviving the Aftermath’ and addresses how people are preparing for this and other catastrophic events. These options range from renting condos in a repurposed Kansas missile silo to hiring an ex-special forces soldier to hustle your family to a waiting speedboat stored at a secret mooring on the East River for escape to a yacht waiting offshore. About the only thing these plans have in common is that they cost a lot more than the average suburbanite has to spend on post-apocalypse preparation, or anything for that matter. It also devotes three chapters to plans the Church of Latter-day Saints and their comprehensive preparations for disaster. While this provides ideas of what society can do if we work together it gives little in the way of hope for individuals wanting to make preparations themselves.
The bottom line is that we, in pursuit of convenience, economic advantage, and the right to privacy, have created an open door to allow anyone with the know-how and the will to destroy the United States without firing a shot. The ability for hackers to cripple one or more of our three major power grids for an extended period of time already exists.
* The review book was based on an advanced reading copy obtained at no cost from the publisher in exchange for an unbiased review. While this does take any ‘not worth what I paid for it’ statements out of my review, it otherwise has no impact on the content of my review.
FYI: On a 5-point scale I assign stars based on my assessment of what the book needs in the way of improvements:
• 5 Stars – Nothing at all. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
• 4 Stars – It could stand for a few tweaks here and there but it’s pretty good as it is.
• 3 Stars – A solid C grade. Some serious rewriting would be needed in order for this book to be considered great or memorable.
• 2 Stars – This book needs a lot of work. A good start would be to change the plot, the character development, the writing style and the ending.
• 1 Star - The only thing that would improve this book is a good bonfire.
I was a little taken out by a multi-chapter focus on Mormonism, which makes me take it down 1 star.
J. Robert Ewbank author "John Wesley, Natural Man, and the Isms" "Wesley's Wars" "To Whom It May Concern" and "Tell Me About the United Methodist Church"
Koppel is no stranger to presenting frightful situations to his audience. Many first recognized his skill as a journalist when he transitioned ABC’s The Iran Crisis: America Held Hostage into Nightline. Koppel’s familiar cadence and style are present in his writing, and make it very easy to join him in looking at this potential disaster.
Thankfully, we have yet to experience a cyberattack of this nature, but Koppel uses historical events to interpolate the consequences of a seriously damaged power grid. In 2003, millions of homes and businesses from northern Ohio to parts of southeast Canada were without power for as much as two weeks. Our power grid is an unbelievably complicated balancing act of power creation and power consumption. A large enough disturbance on either side of the equation and the system is compromised. The simplicity of our home’s power grid creates the perfect breeding ground for overconfidence in the grid as a whole.
Many elements of the nation’s power grid are custom made machines, decades old, that enable electricity to be sent vast distances, and then converted back into current that can be distributed to local homes and business. So vast are these transformers that when originally installed, many had to be transported on custom rail cars that no longer exist. There is no so simple as resetting a breaker, and going back to watch the rest of the game. It is very plausible that weeks could become months or even longer to repair those components.
Thankfully, even if attackers successfully breached electronic firewalls, there is no way they could cause harm to machinery, right? Koppel’s example comes from the successful cyberattack by the United States and her allies on the Iranian nuclear program. After gaining access to the software running Iranian centrifuges, minute adjustments were made to their speed making the materials being processed useless, several of the centrifuges damage, and setting the Iranians back as much as two years. It’s easy to see that hacking into the power grid’s software would be difficult, but if achieved, could create a significant amount of damage.
Hurricane Katrina provides a far too real look at the challenges faced by those caught in a prolonged outage, especially in large metropolitan areas. How do you pump water to the seven million residents of Manhattan Island? How do you pump out the human waste? Elevators, hospitals, phones and many thousands of devices become useless without power. In responding to Katrina, every level of government failed the citizens of New Orleans.
Koppel does an excellent job of avoiding political dogma, his eyes firmly attached to the danger of a successful cyberattack, giving the reader no alternative to looking the danger straight in the eye.
I personally recall reading a newspaper account of this event at the time. It occurred to me then that it was possibly " ... a dry run for a later
far more devastating act of sabotage". Yet, I had not subsequently heard of
any follow up investigation at the time--- until this book! Mr. Koppel's book is properly sub-titled "A Cyberattacks, A Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath". He points out that local distributors of electricity are not governed by any national regulatory standards. Thus "... distribution of electricity (even to the NSA), for example is regulated only on a state-by-state basis". He further points out that there is no monetary incentive among the various independent suppliers of electricity to solve this problem.
The author then sets forth all the other types of entities throughout the USA that have a similar problem ---- all faced with a monetary profit motive not to be solved. Unfortunately, (and I don't blame him) the author has no solution and our various governments are too busy solving other current problems.
The book is a quick read - and scary! I highly recommend it.
It was not.
However dry as it was it is a downright scary thought. Almost too much to think about preparing for. Especially if the darkness from on electricity goes on for months. I'll be dead from either disease or roaming criminals from
In fact, the more that I read the more I realized that sometimes not knowing is living in happy bliss. What I mean by this is that when you don't know everything that is going on behind the scenes like a movie than you still enjoy that movie but how many times have you read about the way a movie was made and maybe your perspective about that movie was changed. All I have to say is that "Zombies" are not the thing that we need to fear but a cyberattack. Which the government already is aware of could happen and they have prepared while the rest of the world is living in "happy bliss".