Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

by Peter L. Bernstein

Paperback, 1998

Status

Available

Call number

368

Collection

Publication

Wiley (1998), Edition: Edition Unstated, 400 pages

Description

Business. Nonfiction. HTML:A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller "Ambitious and readable . . . an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom Bernstein regards as true humanists helping to release mankind from the choke holds of superstition and fatalism." �The New York Times "An extraordinarily entertaining and informative book." �The Wall Street Journal "A lively panoramic book . . . Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it." �Business Week "Deserves to be, and surely will be, widely read." �The Economist "[A] challenging book, one that may change forever the way people think about the world." �Worth "No one else could have written a book of such central importance with so much charm and excitement." �Robert Heilbroner author, The Worldly Philosophers "With his wonderful knowledge of the history and current manifestations of risk, Peter Bernstein brings us Against the Gods. Nothing like it will come out of the financial world this year or ever. I speak carefully: no one should miss it." �John Kenneth Galbraith Professor of Economics Emeritus, Harvard University In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today. "An extremely readable history of risk." �Barron's "Fascinating . . . this challenging volume will help you understand the uncertainties that every investor must face." �Money "A singular achievement." �Times Literary Supplement "There's a growing market for savants who can render the recondite intelligibly-witness Stephen Jay Gould (natural history), Oliver Sacks (disease), Richard Dawkins (heredity), James Gleick (physics), Paul Krugman (economics)-and Bernstein would mingle well in their company." �The Australian.… (more)

Media reviews

Against the Gods sets up an ambitious premise and then delivers on it. This is a lively, panoramic book that includes tales of everyone from Omar Khayyam to Florence Nightingale to Daniel Ellsberg. Khayyam, the poet, was also a mathematician. Nightingale, the nurse, once offered to fund a chair in
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applied statistics at Oxford University. And Ellsberg, the Defense Dept. analyst who leaked the Pentagon Papers, specialized in the behavioral psychology of risk-taking.
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User reviews

LibraryThing member jpsnow
A fine treatment of the evolution of our understanding of risk -- the discovery of probability, the addition of rigor through mathematics, the application to economics, the theory of games, the psychology of "prospect theory," sunk costs, compartmental mental accounting, and the modern status.
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Bernstein covers the theories of rational expectations, chaos, neural networks, and ties them all together with interesting examples and historical incidents. He even gave me a new respect for Keynes in the process. Predominant themes: we vary in our rational decision-making ability, especially with regard to risk; the forecast of any market can be wrong because of the development of accurate models by others; regression to the mean, et al. The one gap in coverage here is that the Bayesian approach was barely broached.
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LibraryThing member thinkle
A slightly dated, but well-researched and concise treatment of the history of risk from ancient Greece up to the 1990s, with examples of risk management/mismanagement.

The author does a good job of humanizing what could be a dismally dull subject by sketching the personalities that pushed the
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sciences of probability, statistics and risk management forward.

Recommended reading for economics and finance students, financial professionals or interested laypersons.
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LibraryThing member awilson
History of mathmatics (numbers as we know them came from the Hindus, arithmetic from the Arabs), odds making, insurance, actuaries, and programmed stock trading. Fascinating if you care to work through his examples.
LibraryThing member tintinintibet
Turns into descriptive papers on various topics, without much keeping the chapters together or deriving lessons/conclusions from the story. I would struggle for YEARS to get past page 100 or so -- I think because I got tired of reading a series of case studies about historical personas. I wanted
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something with more linear continuity.
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LibraryThing member beaurichly
A fantastic, well written survey of the history of understanding and mitigating financial and market risks. Should be required ready for every legislator or regulator dealing with financial markets. If you want to put the financial crisis in perspective, read this now!
LibraryThing member BrianFannin
Excellent overview of probability and the development of financial markets. I take issue with a few points- prospect theory does not obviate the benefits of statistical analysis, for example- but overall a fantastic read.
LibraryThing member everfresh1
Excellent narrative of the history of human attempts to find some order in life and how this became applicable to financial markets. There are no revelations here but rather it shows that we are still nowhere near a solution for predicting any kind of future, financial or otherwise - if that is
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possible at all. It was very interesting to read in last chapters about derivative instruments, considering recent crisis and the fact the book was written in 1996. It's quite eerily how author describes potential misuse of derivatives, which is what has caused 2008 financial crisis.
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LibraryThing member FKarr
I disagree with so much of this book. Not because I think Bernstein's statements are wrong, but because their connection to risk, risk assessment, and risk management is so tenuous. Further, there is never any discussion of consequence. It is not enough to assess the likelihood of an event - the
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potential consequence is more important.
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LibraryThing member AstonishingChristina
Probability has always been my mental blindspot, but this is a pretty good introduction to risk management for a lay person.

Language

Original language

English

Original publication date

1996

Physical description

400 p.; 8.9 inches

ISBN

0471295639 / 9780471295631

UPC

723812295630
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