2052 : a global forecast for the next forty years

Indeholder "Acknowledgments", "Preface: What Will the Future Bring?", "Part 1. Background", " 1. Worrying about the Future", " Why Now?", " Is a Forecast Possible?", " Why Forty Years?", " Bases for an Educated Guess", " Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind", " 2. Five Big Issues toward 2052", "

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The Sustainability Revolution", " Five Central Issues Involving System Change", " The End of Capitalism?", " Glimpse 2-1 The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization", " The End of Economic Growth?", " Glimpse 2-2 Constraining Asian Consumption", " The End of Slow Democracy?", " Glimpse 2-3 Shuffling toward Sustainability", " The End of Generational Harmony?", " Glimpse 2-4 Intergenerational War for Equity", " The End of Stable Climate?", " Glimpse 2-5 Extreme Weather in 2052", "Part 2. My Global Forecast", " 3. The Logic behind My Forecast", " The Guiding Star", " A Broad-Brush Picture", " A Brief Summary of My Story", " The Deterministic Backbone", " Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze", " The Mathematical Formulation", " A Final Note on the Data Base", " 4. Population and Consumption to 2052", " Population Will Peak", " Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier", " Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles", " Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly", " Glimpse 4-1 The End of Uneconomic Growth", " Investments---Forced and Voluntary---Will Increase", " New Costs Will Emerge", " Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode", " The State Will Get More Involved", " Glimpse 4-2 Light Green Growth", " Consumption Will Stagnate---and Fall in Some Places", " 5. Energy and CO2 to 2052", " Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise", " Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever", " Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables", " Glimpse 5-1 The Road to PV", " Glimpse 5-2 The Death of Nuclear", " CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030", " Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C", " Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties", " Glimpse 5-3 Troubled Arctic Waters", " Glimpse 5-4 The Flight to the City", " 6. Food and Footprint to 2052", " Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand", " Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance", " Glimpse 6-1 Expensive Oil = Expensive Food", " Glimpse 6-2 The Limits to Protein", " Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries", " Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer", " Glimpse 6-3 The Race to Lose Last", " Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge", " Glimpse 6-4 Urban Mining of Metals", " Glimpse 6-5 Nature Limited to Parks", " 7. The Nonmaterial Future to 2052", " Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits", " Slower Growth in Productivity", " Tensions from Declining Consumption", " Prevalence of Short-Termism", " Stronger Government", " Forced Redistribution", " Megacity Environment", " Glimpse 7-1 Megacity Living and Externalization of the Mind", " Omnipresent Internet", " Disappearing Charms", " Better Health", " Glimpse 7-2 Individual Health from Public Care", " Armed Forces Fighting New Threats", " Glimpse 7-3 The Future of War and the Rise of Robots", " Glimpse 7-4 Military for Sustainability", " 8. The Zeitgeist in 2052", " Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions", " Glimpse 8-1 Scotland Joins New Europe", " Glimpse 8-2 The End of Mediterranean Disparity", " Glimpse 8-3 Slum Urbanism in Africa", " A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth", " Glimpse 8-4 Valuing the Whole", " Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government", " Glimpse 8-5 Systemic CSR, or CSR 2.0", " Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals", " Glimpse 8-6 Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd", " Glimpse 8-7 Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good", " Intergenerational Equity: Widening the Lens", "Part 3. Analysis", " 9. Reflections on the Future", " The Main Drivers", " The Future in Graphs", " The Cliff-Hanger", " My Own Reactions", " Eight Straight Questions about the Future", " Wild Cards", " The Path to 2052", " Glimpse 9-1 Sudden Rush to Solar", " Glimpse 9-2 Financing the Future", " 10. Five Regional Futures", " Toward 2052: The United States", " Glimpse 10-1 Bright Solar Future", " Toward 2052: China", " Glimpse 10-2 China---the New Hegemon", " Toward 2052: OECD-less-US", " Toward 2052: BRISE", " Glimpse 10-3 Rich on Biofuels", " Toward 2052: Rest of the World", " 11. Comparison with Other Futures", " Testing against a Global Computer Model", " Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies", " Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail", " Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century", " Glimpse 11-1 The Fifth Cultural Step", " Glimpse 11-2 The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life", " 12. What Should You Do?", " What Global Society Ideally Should Have Done", " Twenty Pieces of Personal Advice", " Learn to Live with Impending Disaster without Losing Hope", "Closing Words", "Appendices", " 1. Summary", " 2. Definitions and Data Sources", " 3. Further Reading for the 2052 Glimpses", " 4. Extra Data on Fertility and Productivity", "Notes", "Index".

Et kvalificeret bud på hvor verden bevæger sig hen de næste 40 år. Meget, meget tankevækkende.

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