The Half-Life of Facts: Why everything we know has an expiration date

by Samuel Arbesman

Hardcover, 2012

Call number

501

Publication

New York, New York, U.S.A. : Current, 2012.

Pages

viii; 242

Description

"A new approach to uderstanding the ever-changing information that bombards us. Arbesman is an expert in scientometrics, literally the science of science--how we know what we know. It turns out that knowledge in most fields evolves in systematic and predictable ways, and understanding that evolution can enormously powerful"--

Media reviews

. . . delightfully nerdy. . . . Science, Mr. Arbesman observes, is a "terribly human endeavor." Knowledge grows but carries with it uncertainty and error; today's scientific doctrine may become tomorrow's cautionary tale. What is to be done? The right response, according to Mr. Arbesman, is to
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embrace change rather than fight it. . . . In a world of information flux, it isn't what you know that counts--it is how efficiently you can refresh.
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Language

Original language

English

Physical description

viii, 242 p.; 9.5 inches

ISBN

9781591844723

User reviews

LibraryThing member mcelhra
After I saw Samuel Arbesman speak at Tedx Kansas City a few weeks ago, I knew I had to read his book. The premise of his talk and his book is that facts are not really information set in stone, the way we usually think about them. The world is constantly changing and nothing is for certain forever.
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I was floored by the notion that what my kids are learning in school may contradict what I learned in school. For some reason, that notion had never occurred to me!

The Half-Life of Facts is easily understood by a lay person. I found it very readable and I don’t have a head for science at all. Each chapter outlines a different reason why facts may either change or be found to be untrue. Arbesman uses examples throughout, all of which I found fascinating. I would love to read even more stories about which facts have changed over time and why.

I was surprised by some of the facts that are no longer true. For instance, did you know that there really isn’t a dinosaur called a Brontosaurus? I had no idea and both of my boys have been through dinosaur obsessions within the past few years. The Brontosaurus was found to be a type of Apatosaurus over a hundred years ago. However, once something is out in the ether, it’s really hard to circulate information modifying or correcting the original assertion.

I appreciated that not only does Arbesman discuss the various ways in which untruths persist and facts change over time, he also offers suggestions of how to keep current without getting information overload.

I love that in keeping with the spirit of The Half-Life of Facts, Arbesman’s website has a Errata and Updates section for the book. There is already one case listed in which Arbesman unknowingly perpetuated a myth about how spinach became known to have a high iron content.

It’s very rare that I read a non-fiction book that I have a hard time putting down. The Half-Life of Facts is one of those rare riveting works of non-fiction. I highly recommend it to all.
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LibraryThing member hailelib
This book was meant for a popular audience although many of the examples Arbesman uses are expanded upon and references given in the notes. It's an easy, readily understood, discussion of how knowledge evolves over time with 'facts' being modified or even overturned and also how science is really
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done as compared to the ideal of how it such be done. After all science is a human activity and those involved have the foibles and biases one should expect in any group of humans. This book is definitely recommended! In fact, I've told my husband he needs to take a look at it before I return it to the library.
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LibraryThing member satyridae
I wish I thought that I would be able to remember everything I learned from this book, though Arbesman did give me an out by suggesting that the time has come to outsource our memories to the cloud because that's the best way of getting the latest information. But already I'm forgetting some of the
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mechanisms of error that humans are prone to, lapsing back into them. I can feel my sharp edges blurring.

This is a wonderful book! Turns out that nearly everything can be quantified in ways I never dreamed before, and there are new and exciting ways to combine information to generate fresh discoveries that are just beginning to be explored. This book makes a person want to stand up and cheer.

Recommended!
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LibraryThing member hcubic
When I think of a 'half-life' I have in mind a particular physical model, the one that we use when discussing first-order chemical reactions as exemplified, for example, in unimolecular thermal decompositions at moderate pressure or any nuclear fission. When I think of 'facts', I think of
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conclusions that have been established as a truth that has been established as a result of repeatable experiments. Samuel Arbesman adopts much more flexible definitions of both of the nouns in his title. By doing so, he can build a fairly interesting book for the lay reader that emphasizes over and over the nature of science. There really is no final answer in science. Everything in science is subject to refutation, or at least refinement, and every good scientist is looking for opportunities to show that the nature of the world is not as had been assumed before. Some of the 'facts' that he chooses to discuss are not real facts, at all. For example, the idea that children can become strong by eating their spinach (as once did Popeye, a bygone cartoon character) is not true at all, and never was, except in the mind of its creator. Even more interesting is another myth about how spinach got that reputation. According to the myth, which Arbesman perpetuates on pages 83 and 84, is that it is a consequence of a decimal-point error made by German analytical chemist in 1870. It turns out that there is no truth whatsoever to this story, and the author points this out in his official errata. This is one example of a 'fact' that had a lifetime of less than a century. Arbesman uses a number of examples like this one from popular culture to show how 'facts' change over time. I find many of them to be trivial, and the idea of a 'half-life' is not exploited after the idea is introduced in the first few pages. Neverthless, there are some interesting stories here.
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LibraryThing member figre
This turns out to be a fairly timely read as we find ourselves awash in allegations of alternative facts and half-truths and fake news and whatever sobriquet is currently being bandied about to provide a basis for denial. However, don’t even think that this is a political book. It has no ax to
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grind; agenda to support; or closed-door, smoke-filled-room, fingers-crossed handshake decisions to prop up.

Instead, Samuel Arbesman has written a well-researched book on how facts come into being and how they deteriorate over time. And it also explains why there is nothing wrong with this deterioration – it is the nature of facts that, as we learn more, our understanding changes…if we allow those updates to what we know make a difference in our beliefs and opinions.

The book lays out how “facts” are discovered and how our ability to learn and apply more rigor to situations allows us to better understand the world in which we live. Much like Moore’s law regarding the growth in computation speed, there is a similar exponential growth in our learning in specific areas, and that means yesterday’s facts are no longer quite as true as we once thought.

And Arbesman makes the case that this further understanding is not meant to denigrate the work that has gone before; rather it is proof of our constant ability to grow our understanding on the shoulders of those who have come before.

Once this is all laid out, Arbesman then explores the human side of facts, including why we tend to “adhere to out-of-date information well after it has lost its truth.” (For example, no frog in his right mind will stay in a pot where the temperature is slowly rising. The frog will jump out, contrary to what many of us believe.) This section is particularly enlightening in relation to today’s situations where people do not want to accept facts that contradict their understanding of the world. (Sorry, that include climate change deniers – my only political comment in this whole review.)

The book succeeds at many levels. It is an excellent history lesson about the way things are discovered and refuted, it provides an excellent understanding about the rate of change (think of any doctor who, ten years after beginning practice, has had to practically relearn his craft), and it provides insights into the way people think – good and bad.

If I have any one quibble, it is that much of the research that supports these contentions has to do with the citing of academic research. The work is rigorous and may well be one of the few ways to objectively support what Arbesman is saying. But, as a non-academician, I couldn’t completely relate with the findings, and was slightly fatigued by the constant references.

However, those studies do help paint a fascinating picture of the way information and facts are transmitted and they provide a solid basis for much of what Arbesman is saying. In addition, these studies are not the only sources Arbesman uses, which helps maintain the credibility of what he has to say.

Perhaps most importantly, Arbesman succeeds in supporting the contention of the book’s subtitle. Everything we know does, indeed, have an expiration date. That is not a bad thing, as long as we are aware of it. And Arbesman’s book will help every reader become just a little bit more aware.
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LibraryThing member Razinha
A data driven book, there's a lot of substance here, and Arbeson makes it very readable. Henot only addresses the half-life, but also the discovery, acquisition, spread and defense of the facts of our lives. He also looks at "facts" that aren't, but people still think are. The half-life of
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misinformation seems to me to be longer in a world of Facebook, Twitter and Fox"News":

Ultimately, the reason these errors spread is because it’s a lot easier to spread the first thing you find, or the fact that sounds correct, than to delve deeply into the literature in search of the correct fact.

Lots more nuggets for the toolbox in this one. Recommended.
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